Becoming a data-driven Organisation by Martin Treder

Author:Martin Treder
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9783662603048
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

It is fairly safe to derive from this diagram that his point average in his 16th season will be somewhere in the range between 25 and 30. A simple formula (called Linear Regression) would, indeed, suggest an average of 26.8 points per game―which turns out to be a mere 0.6 points below his true 2018/2019 performance.

However, the very same formula suggests that LeBron James would score an average of 26.2 points in his 30th season―when he will be around 50 years old…

I guess you get the point. A formula doesn’t stay valid forever.

But if a formula works within a certain range in our business life, we tend to assume that it is valid beyond that range.

It usually isn’t. And this is not always as easy to spot as in the example above.

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